Projects

State prediction program of scientific and technological development for 2008-2012 STR "Development of software and scientific and methodological supply for identifying perspective areas of new technologies innovation development in large enterprises, industries and regions on the basis of technological foresight"

Development of information platform of
scenario analysis as a tool of
technological foresight

A systematic methodology of scenario analysis procedure for constructing scenarios of future development in various areas of innovative activity has been introduced using methods of qualitative analysis. Hierarchical system of qualitative analysis of methods used for solving math problems includes methods of SWOT analysis, cross impact method, morphological analysis, analysis of hierarchies, modified method of the hierarchy analysis for the assessment of situational risk and risk of subjectivity  of expert assessment in identifying perspective areas of new technologies development on the basis of point and fuzzy / interval assessment. On-line questionnaires have been developed; scenarios alternatives regarding solving problems on priority measures for transport and public services in Kyiv have been built and evaluated.

Mathematical supply has been adapted for solving technological foresight to identify perspective ways of implementing critical technologies in the area of "Energy and Energy Efficiency”. Some questions that were suggested in questionnaires have been answered by qualified experts.

The results of work have been used in the construction of scenarios alternatives to identify perspective ways of implementing critical technologies in the area of “Energy and Energy Efficiency” (Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine).

"Development of databases and processing algorithms complexes for system prediction of complex anthropogenic and natural systems behavior"р

Non-stationary of different kinds of natural disasters, the regime of which is significantly affected by climate and techno-sphere changes have been investigated. The quantitative assessment of sustainable development according to the group of economic, environmental and social indices, indicators and data sets (if taking into account the totality of threats) has been done; the analysis of the impact of these threats to sustainable development in different countries has been conducted. The Ukrainian project participants have introduced mathematical models, software products, and a methodic for the main parameters of sustainable development of countries-participants of the project in terms of their geographical location with the aim of establishing recommendations for strategic planning and effective management of the countries-participants of the project. The group of global risks and threats for the development of these countries have been analysed and scenarios aimed at avoiding undesirable consequences and disasters caused by the action of these factors have been developed.

In general, it was the complex study of crisis processes prediction on basis of the behaviour of complex natural and anthropogenic systems.

As a result of the project, in the process of Russia and Ukraine WDC cooperation Russian and Ukrainian WDC sites were complemented with the new information resources on the problems of the natural disasters regime, implementing of the sustainable development concept and methods of complex dynamical systems analysis using the methods of artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic and the theory of catastrophes and theory of critical phenomena.

The results of the project will be implemented as:

  • new principles, mathematical models, techniques and methods of quantitative and qualitative assessment of sustainable development with the aim of annual monitoring of system of measurements (indices and indicators) for companies, enterprises, regions and industries of countries-participants of the project, tools of quantitative and qualitative assessment of sustainable ecological social and economic development.

At the result of the annual monitoring of the recommendations for the governmental organisations of regions, companies, enterprises, industries and cities of the country (countries) aimed at identifying and eliminating threats to their development, predictions for a decision-making on further development have been created.

Reports of research projects completed in 2010

1. «Methods of non-linear analysis and topological methods of variation inequalities and evolution inclusions»research manager M.V. Andreev (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

2. «Design, investigation and applications of principally new models of socio-economic systems»research manager  O.S. Makarenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

3. «Development of optimal control methods by flows in networks with using the theory of differential games»research manager V.V. Ostapenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

4. «Construction decision support system by using Bayesian network’s theory for modeling behavior of complex systems»research manager P.I. Bidyuk (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

5. «Development of an integrated technology system design, safety control and diagnosis of complex technical objects under conditions of uncertainty and multifactorial risk» research manager N.D. Pankratova (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

6. «Development and investigation of the methods for adaptive forecasting and statistical identification based on non-linear dynamic models of physical and economic processes»research manager V.D. Romanenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

7. «System researches and applications of the diagnostics facilities for the analysis of the explosions influence on the iron-ore careers of the Crooked Horn on building»research manager Y.I. Kalyukh (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

8. «Creation of the Ukrainian system circuit design of technical facilities NetALLTED» research manager A.I. Petrenko ;

9. «Development of methodology and Networked simulating tools with orientation on micro electromechanical systems (MEMS)» research manager A.I. Petrenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

10. «Development of methods and systems of non-decaying control and technical diagnostics of complex technical objects and systems» research manager N.D. Pankratova (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

11. «Development of method and tools for estimation of efficiency of distant sounding of the Earth (DSE) space projects on the basis of expert procedures of foresight» research manager N.D. Pankratova (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

12. «The development of WEB-based CAD framework for design of complex technical systems» research manager A.I. Petrenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

13. «Multimedia in education – experimental exploring of Distant Learning methods» research manager A.I. Petrenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

14. «Improving the design of large integrated circuits» research manager A.I. Petrenko.

Reports of research projects completed in 2009

1. «Mathematical Models Development and Global Modelling of Sustainable Development Processes » research manager M.Z. Zgurovsky (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

2. «Development of Databases Complex and Processing Algorithms for System Prediction of Complex Anthropogenic and Natural Systems Behavior» research manager M.Z. Zgurovsky (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

3. «Differential-operator inclusions and evolutionary variational inequalities in infinite-dimensional spaces» research manager O.S. Makarenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

4. «Commutations System of Multifilamentary Exchange Lines Development» research manager A.I. Petrenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

5. «Methods of Automatic Circuit Macro-models Micro-electromechanical Systems» research manager A.I. Petrenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

6. «Development of scientific-methodical supply and software for identifying advanced areas of innovation technologies development on the level of large companies, industries and regions based on the technology of prediction» research manager N.D. Pankratova (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

7. «Development of Methods and Scenarios of Future Events Modelling Techniques» research manager N.D. Pankratova (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

8. «Investigation of Processes in Multilayer Composites for Waste Management Formation Aimed at Environmental Protection » research manager I.M. Kornienko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

9. «Development of Energy Saving and Ecological Hybrid Processes for Neutralisation of Harmful Emissions» research manager G.O. Statukha (download icon_small_pdf.gif).

Reports of research projects completed in 2008

1. «Development of informative platform of scenario analysis as the base tool for technological foresight» research manager M.Z. Zgurovsky (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

2. «System management of safety and capacity of difficult technical systems in conditions of multifactor risks » research manager N.D. Pankratova ( download icon_small_pdf.gif);

3. «Methods and means of parallel order reduction of super-large RLC circuits models » research manager A.I. Petrenko ( download icon_small_pdf.gif);

4. «Multi-levels Internet learning technology for individual professional orientation of students with special demerits» research manager A.I. Petrenko ( download icon_small_pdf.gif);

5. «System research of monitoring facilities of technical diagnostics of natural and building objects in difficult conditions» research manager Y.I. Kalyukh ( download icon_small_pdf.gif);

6. «Development of methods of decision-making support in economical processes on the basis of parameters authentication and risks forecasting» research manager V.D. Romanenko ( download icon_small_pdf.gif);

7. «Neuronal networks and multi-agent models, scenario and geo-information approaches in social-economical systems research» research manager O.S. Makarenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

8. «Development of methods of analysis, forecasting and diagnostics of processes with uncertainties on the basis of Bayes theory» research manager P.I. Bidyuk (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

9. «Functional-topological methods of analysis and optimum control of nonlinear systems with distributed parameters at phase constraints» research manager V.S. Melnyk (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

10. «Development on the basis of system analysis and game theory of new distribution and control methods for limited resources» research manager V.V. Ostapenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif).

Reports of research projects completed in 2007

1. «Forecasting of evolution of macroeconomic and social processes on the basis of transformation of official statistical information» research manager V.S. Melnyk (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

2. «Development of mathematical models and algorithms of flows control in networks with different conservation laws» research manager V.V. Ostapenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

3. «Development of methods and algorithms for analysis and optimal control of nonlinear singular systems» research manager V.S. Melnyk (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

4. «Development and investigation the theoretical base of scenario analysis methodology» research manager V.S. Melnyk (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

5. «Development of analysis methods, evaluation and optimal control for nonlinear unmeasured dynamic systems in uncertain conditions» research manager M.Z. Zgurovsky (download icon_small_pdf.gif);

6. «Numeral-analytical modeling of game and optimization processes of different nature» research manager V.V. Ostapenko (download icon_small_pdf.gif).